经济学人 ｜｜移民火星能够成为现实吗？

背景介绍： 人类移民火星一直是科幻作品和太空探索的梦想，但要实现这个目标仍然面临着巨大的挑战。马斯克提出的想法是在火星上建立一个可持续的居住基地，以满足移民者的生活需求。这可能包括建设厂房、农田、能源供应系统和环境控制设施等。同时，通过使用火星上的资源，如水和土壤，可以减少对地球补给的依赖。但回到现实，这一太空移民计划能够成真吗？ The likelihood of living on Mars soon is as remote as Pluto 很快搬去火星的可能性渺如冥王星 Even if tech geeks do not want to hear that 即便技术极客们不想听到这些 Some converts are zealous. Some are reluctant. Kelly and Zach Weinersmith are definitely in the second camp. Both, as they constantly remind the reader, are space geeks. But they are also rationalists (who happen to be married). 改变信仰的人有些很狂热，有些则不大情愿。凯莉·维纳史密斯和扎克·维纳史密斯肯定属于后者。正如他们不断提醒读者的那样，两人都是太空极客。但他们也是理性主义者（碰巧结婚了）。 They began writing their new book in the expectation that off-Earth settlements would soon be on the cards. Their rational appraisal, having finished it, is the opposite. Those, such as Elon Musk, who aspire to make Homo sapiens a two-planet species by colonising Mars or somewhere else, are, they conclude, deluding themselves. 怀着对人类可能很快将能在地球之外定居的期许，他们开始写新书。写完后，他们的理性评估所得出的结论却恰恰相反。他们认为，那些像马斯克一样渴望通过殖民火星或其他地方而让智人成为双星球物种的人，是在自欺欺人。 That opinion is not popular in the circles in which they move. But they argue their case cogently, contrasting the escapist fantasies of would-be planetary homesteaders with practicality. How, for example, would people feed themselves? 这种观点在他们所混迹的圈子里并不讨喜。但他们拿未来星际开拓者逃避现实的幻想比对实际情形，做了清晰有力的论述。例如，人们如何养活自己？ Mars’s surface is covered with toxic perchlorates, making the planet’s “soil” hard to farm; the Moon’s has little carbon, life’s essential ingredient. Will space-dwellers be able to have babies? Both conception and birth may prove tricky in low gravity. 火星表面覆盖着有毒的高氯酸盐，因此火星的“土壤”很难耕种；月球上几乎没有碳，而碳是生命的基本成分。太空居民能生孩子吗？在低重力环境下，受孕和分娩可能都会很难。 Will there be a land grab for the few lunar mountain tops that enjoy perpetual sunshine and the equally rare crater bottoms that never see it (and so might harbour the precious resource of frozen water)? 人们会不会争夺地盘，去抢那几个永浴阳光的月球山顶，还有同样罕见的永远暗无天日的陨石坑底（因此可能蕴藏着宝贵的冰冻水资源）？ Who will control the air supply? (For a fictional take on how this can go wrong, watch “Total Recall”.) What will the currency be? Space-shuttle astronauts in the 1990s favoured packets of taco sauce. 谁将控制空气供应？(想要了解事态能发展到多严重，可以看看电影《全面回忆》。）用什么做货币？上世纪90年代，航天飞机上的宇航员最喜欢用的是墨西哥卷饼的酱料包。 Then there is the question of why anyone would want to go in the first place. Escaping an environmentally damaged Earth or even simply having an insurance policy against the chance of nuclear annihilation or an asteroid strike may sound attractive. 接下来的问题是，为什么会有人想去呢？逃离环境被破坏的地球，或者甚至就只是为了加个保险，在核毁灭或是小行星撞击地球时有地方可以躲避，这听上去可能都很吸引人。 But Mars is actually far more horrid than any fate likely to be awaiting humanity’s home planet—even, probably, the aftermath of a nuclear exchange. And the Moon is worse even than that. 但其实，相比人类家园未来可能面临的任何命运——即便是核战争，火星都可怕得多。而月球只会更糟糕。 Space may appeal to Mr Musk as a retirement destination (“I’d like to die on Mars, just not on impact” is a saying often attributed to him). But nursing homes for the hyper-rich are a niche market, not the sort of enterprise on which new countries are usually founded. 马斯克对太空感兴趣，他可能把那里当做退休后的去处（“我想要死在火星上，不过不是在降落时摔死”这句话通常被认为是他说的）。但是，为超级富豪准备养老院是个利基市场，而不是那种能创建新国家的壮举。 As to the one proper business space-colonisation enthusiasts propose that has a chance of becoming real—the mining of asteroids for precious metals—this would mean pushing space rocks around in ways that might make an asteroid strike more rather than less likely. 至于太空殖民狂热者提出的一项有可能成为现实的正经业务——在小行星上开采贵金属——则意味着摆弄干扰太空岩石，或许会增加而不是减少小行星撞击地球的可能性。 And there are even bigger difficulties than these. One is that, however much people might aspire to leave Earth’s cares behind and start afresh elsewhere, they cannot. Any successful space settlement will carry inescapable historical baggage, and will, at least to start with, be simply an extension of terrestrial geopolitics. 还有比这些更大的困难。一是无论人们多么渴望把地球上的烦恼抛在脑后，在其他地方重新开始，他们都做不到。任何成功的太空移民都会背负甩不掉的历史包袱，而且，至少在一开始，会仅仅是地球上的地缘格局的延伸。 The other difficulty is that people themselves are the problem, and they will continue to be a problem even if they are born and raised in other parts of the solar system. 另一个困难是，人类本身就是问题所在，就算在太阳系的其他地方出生、长大，他们也依然会成为问题。 The Weinersmiths are reluctant to rule out the settlement of space for ever. But they argue that if it is to be done, it should not be piecemeal, in the way now planned. 维纳史密斯夫妇不愿永久排除在太空移民的可能性。但他们认为，要做到这一点，不应该像现在计划的这样零敲碎打。 Humanity should instead wait a century or two, garner knowledge, develop technology and accumulate sufficient resources to pull it off properly—and then quickly build a large, planned outpost in a sort of “big bang”. Good luck with that. Patience has never been humanity’s strong suit (it certainly does not seem to be Mr Musk’s). Neither has long-term planning. 相反，人类应该等上一两个世纪，储备知识、发展技术、积累足够的资源来恰当实现这一目标，然后在某个“大爆炸”时刻到来时迅速按计划建立一个大型前哨站。希望能有好运。耐心从来都不是人类的强项（当然也不是马斯克的强项）。长期规划也不是。 (红色标注词为重难点词汇) 重难点词汇： reluctant [rɪˈlʌktənt] adj. 不情愿的；勉强的 delude [dəˈlud] v. 欺骗；迷惑 cogently ['koʊdʒəntlɪ] adv. 中肯地；痛切地 annihilation [əˌnaɪəˈleɪʃn] n. 毁灭；湮没；溃败 terrestrial [təˈrestriəl] adj. 地球的；陆地的 piecemeal [ˈpisˌmil] adj. & adv. 零星的；零碎的；零散的 来源：每日双语经济学人 声明：文章部分图文版权归原创作者所有，如有侵权请与我们联系删除。 科大纵横 USTCPLUS 科教精英 纵横梦想 长按3秒关注我，及时获得相关教育、文化资讯 责任编辑：